Bangladesh is currently experiencing significant developments that impact its relationship with India. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a key ally to India since 2009, introduces uncertainties in bilateral relations . Her departure may stall progress on the Free Trade AgreemenRead more
Bangladesh is currently experiencing significant developments that impact its relationship with India. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a key ally to India since 2009, introduces uncertainties in bilateral relations . Her departure may stall progress on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) discussions initiated in October 2023, affecting market access and economic ties between the two nations.
*Key Developments:*
– Elections and Disconnect: The 2024 elections in Bangladesh were marked by the Opposition’s boycott, limited democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and high youth unemployment .
– Student Protests: The government’s handling of student protests exacerbated tensions, contributing to Prime Minister Hasina’s resignation .
– Bangladesh Army’s Role: The army appears to be facilitating the will of the people by removing the beleaguered Prime Minister and restoring democratic processes .
*Implications for India:*
– Stability and Fundamentalism: Bangladesh’s escalating protests, financial crisis, and rising fundamentalist forces pose challenges for regional stability .
– Refugee Crisis: Instability in Bangladesh could spill over into India, affecting border security and potentially leading to a refugee crisis .
– Economic Ties: Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with bilateral trade amounting to $13 billion in 2023-24 .
– Infrastructure and Connectivity: India’s lines of credit to Bangladesh, totaling $8 billion since 2016, may be impacted by the changing political landscape .
India needs to navigate this changing landscape carefully, strengthening bilateral ties, supporting stability, and addressing shared challenges .
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India's current foreign policy towards China is a combination of collaboration and cutthroat competition with strategic hedging from it. Ties between the two countries have been strained, especially after a border standoff in 2020. While such initiatives have aimed to thaw ties, disagreements over sRead more
India’s current foreign policy towards China is a combination of collaboration and cutthroat competition with strategic hedging from it. Ties between the two countries have been strained, especially after a border standoff in 2020. While such initiatives have aimed to thaw ties, disagreements over substantial issues like territorial disputes—China is sending out some heavy artillery in South Asia as well —and India’s strategic partnerships with the US ensure that problems will endure.
India has adopted a composite strategy that combines diplomacy and force in dealing with China. On the other, multilateral forums like the SCO and BRICS where it is involved with China on several issues. On the other side, India has bolstered its border defenses and stepped up strategic alignments with China wary like USA and Japan.
The Russia-Ukraine war has brought a new dimension and problem to India’s foreign policy. India, however, has struck a cautious note by refraining from naming Russia and instead called for dialogue & respect of sovereignty besides maintaining strategic neutrality. This policy shift has its roots in India’s traditional closeness to Russia, notably in defence and energy. Of course, India could not afford to go out against Western powers particularly the United States which has left a great influence on their neutrality.
India is of course more broadly influenced by its strategic calculus concerning China as well, within the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war. India aims to maintain a stable relationship with China – not only is it engaged in the Quad that seeks to balance an overbearing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region, but India also concedes that escalation will be detrimental.
The pragmatic nature of India’s foreign policy is evident in the manner it navigates through the complexity inherent in part due to its security interests and strategic interests. Its stance on the (Russia-Ukraine war and Chinese ties are guided by its strategy to preserve autonomy in a multipolar world.
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