The Rohingya Refugee Crisis is one of the most significant humanitarian crises of the 21st century, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political, and religious tensions in Myanmar, and exacerbated by the international community’s response. This crisis has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims, a minority group from Myanmar, across borders into neighboring countries, most notably Bangladesh. The crisis has drawn international attention to the complex interplay of domestic and international factors, including the roles of Myanmar, China, India, and Bangladesh, in both the evolution of the crisis and its ongoing resolution.

Origins and Evolution of the Crisis

The Rohingya are a Muslim ethnic group native to Rakhine State, located in the western part of Myanmar. Despite their long history in the region, the Myanmar government does not recognize the Rohingya as one of the country’s 135 official ethnic groups. They are seen by many in Myanmar, particularly the Buddhist majority, as “illegal immigrants” from neighboring Bangladesh, despite historical evidence of their presence in the region long before the colonial period.

The roots of the crisis lie in systematic persecution, marginalization, and discrimination. The Myanmar government, under both military and civilian rule, has denied the Rohingya citizenship, effectively rendering them stateless. Over the years, they have faced restrictions on movement, education, employment, and access to healthcare. This systematic discrimination culminated in 2017 when the Myanmar military launched a brutal crackdown in Rakhine State, after insurgents from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacked border posts. The response involved mass killings, sexual violence, arson, and the forced displacement of over 700,000 Rohingya to neighboring Bangladesh.

The Role of Myanmar

Myanmar’s role in the crisis is the most direct and controversial. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, has been at the center of the violence, although the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi also faced criticism for its failure to stop the atrocities and its defense of the military’s actions on the international stage.

The military crackdown in 2017, termed “clearance operations,” was described by the United Nations as a campaign of ethnic cleansing, and the United States and other international bodies have referred to it as genocide. Human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have documented widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, mass rapes, and the destruction of entire villages. These acts have been part of a long-standing strategy to erase the Rohingya from Myanmar, which has resulted in a vast refugee population.

The international community, including the United Nations, has condemned Myanmar’s actions, but Myanmar’s government, particularly the military, has been resistant to international pressure, further complicating efforts for a resolution.

Role of China

China plays a complex and often ambivalent role in the Rohingya crisis. As Myanmar’s most powerful ally, China has consistently provided political and diplomatic support to the Myanmar government, particularly at the United Nations Security Council, where China has vetoed resolutions aimed at holding Myanmar accountable for human rights violations. China views Myanmar as a key partner in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and maintains strategic interests in the region, including access to the Bay of Bengal and energy infrastructure.

China has provided Myanmar with military aid and support for its economic development. Beijing’s stance has been largely motivated by its desire to maintain stability in the region, as well as its concerns about the growing influence of Western powers and international human rights pressure on Myanmar. While China has expressed some concern over the treatment of the Rohingya, its actions have largely been in defense of Myanmar’s sovereignty and its strategic interests.

Role of India

India’s role in the Rohingya crisis has been more nuanced and has evolved over time. India shares a border with Myanmar and has long-standing security and strategic interests in the region. Like China, India has been cautious about criticizing Myanmar’s actions too strongly, primarily because of its geopolitical relationship with Myanmar, which serves as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in Southeast Asia.

India has been more vocal about the humanitarian aspects of the crisis, and in 2017, it did provide aid to Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. However, India has also faced internal political challenges regarding its treatment of Rohingya refugees. The Indian government has been criticized for attempting to deport Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar, citing security concerns, while others argue that this violates international refugee protection norms.

India has also expressed concerns about the impact of the crisis on its own security and regional stability. Despite its humanitarian aid, India’s reluctance to pressure Myanmar significantly or take a strong stance against the military junta has been seen as an effort to avoid alienating Myanmar as a strategic partner.

Role of Bangladesh

Bangladesh has played a central role in providing refuge to the Rohingya, particularly since the 2017 military crackdown. Over 700,000 Rohingya refugees fled to Bangladesh, seeking safety in camps, especially in the Cox’s Bazar region, which is now home to one of the largest refugee settlements in the world. Bangladesh has been praised for its generosity in providing refuge, despite the massive strain on its resources, infrastructure, and services.

However, Bangladesh faces significant challenges, including overcrowding in refugee camps, economic strain, and the potential for the conflict to spill over its border. The Bangladeshi government has called for the safe return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar but has faced obstacles due to Myanmar’s lack of cooperation in ensuring the refugees’ safety and rights upon their return. While Bangladesh has led efforts to support the refugees, it has also been under pressure to handle the situation in a way that minimizes domestic instability.

Violation of Human Rights

The Rohingya have suffered severe human rights violations, both in Myanmar and as refugees. In Myanmar, their rights to citizenship, freedom of movement, access to healthcare, education, and work have been systematically denied for decades. The 2017 military crackdown has been widely recognized as a campaign of ethnic cleansing, with reports of extrajudicial killings, torture, sexual violence, and forced displacement. Thousands of Rohingya women and children have been subjected to sexual violence, and entire villages have been destroyed.

As refugees, the Rohingya face ongoing challenges, including limited access to education, healthcare, and employment. In Bangladesh, the refugee camps are overcrowded, and many Rohingya live in squalid conditions, making them vulnerable to diseases, human trafficking, and other forms of exploitation. They also face xenophobia and discrimination in the host countries, particularly in Myanmar’s neighboring countries, where they are often viewed as outsiders or security threats.

International Response and Prospects for Resolution

The international community has condemned Myanmar’s actions, with calls for justice, sanctions, and accountability. However, international efforts to resolve the crisis have been hampered by political and strategic interests, particularly from countries like China and Russia, which have blocked strong UN Security Council action against Myanmar. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has taken up the case of Myanmar’s genocide against the Rohingya, but significant progress toward justice and accountability remains slow.

In terms of resolution, the focus is on creating conditions for the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of the Rohingya to Myanmar. However, this is contingent upon the Myanmar government guaranteeing the safety, security, and rights of the returning refugees—conditions that are currently not in place. Until Myanmar’s government and military leadership are held accountable for their actions, and a more comprehensive and inclusive political solution is found, the crisis will likely persist.

Conclusion

The Rohingya Refugee Crisis is a tragic and ongoing humanitarian disaster, with the Myanmar government playing the central role in the persecution and displacement of the Rohingya people. The international community, particularly countries like China, India, and Bangladesh, has played varying roles, often driven by geopolitical interests, and the prospects for a lasting resolution remain uncertain. The violations of human rights faced by the Rohingya, both in Myanmar and as refugees, are among the most severe in recent memory, and a meaningful resolution will require coordinated international pressure, accountability, and long-term commitment to ensuring the safety and dignity of the Rohingya people.

BIMSTEC:

BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) is a regional organization comprising seven countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Established in 1997, its primary aim is to foster regional cooperation and integration among member countries across multiple sectors including trade, technology, energy, environment, and people-to-people connectivity. The organization includes the following members:

1. Bangladesh
2. India
3. Myanmar
4. Sri Lanka
5. Thailand
6. Nepal
7. Bhutan

BIMSTEC serves as a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia, given its strategic location in the Bay of Bengal region. It seeks to enhance economic cooperation, promote sustainable development, and address common challenges such as climate change, energy security, and terrorism.

The organization operates through various sectoral groups, which address key areas such as:

• Trade and Investment
• Energy
• Transport and Communications
• Environment and Disaster Management
• Tourism and Culture
• Agriculture and Food Security

Kathmandu Summit (2024): Key Outcomes

The recently concluded BIMSTEC Kathmandu Summit (in 2024) marked an important milestone in the organization’s journey, with several significant outcomes that reflect the collective aspirations and challenges of the member countries. Here are the key highlights:

1. Strengthening Connectivity and Trade:
   • The summit emphasized enhancing connectivity within the region, focusing on physical infrastructure (roads, railways, and ports), digital connectivity, and people-to-people links. The aim is to reduce trade barriers and foster greater economic integration. This included discussions on the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which seeks to streamline and promote trade between member countries.
   • In line with this, there were commitments to improve regional trade and investment flows by enhancing economic cooperation and addressing non-tariff barriers.
2. Regional Security Cooperation:
   • There was a renewed focus on addressing security concerns, especially in combating terrorism, human trafficking, and cyber threats. The summit emphasized collaborative efforts on regional security issues, including intelligence sharing and enhanced defense cooperation.
   • Member states also agreed to tackle the challenges posed by the geopolitical situation in the region, particularly in light of rising tensions in neighboring regions like the South China Sea.
3. Climate Change and Disaster Resilience:
   • Given the geographical proximity to the Bay of Bengal, the summit placed a strong emphasis on combating climate change and strengthening disaster resilience. It was agreed that BIMSTEC countries would collaborate on climate change adaptation strategies, share knowledge on disaster management, and enhance regional cooperation in mitigating the impacts of natural disasters.
   • There were also discussions around sustainable development goals (SDGs) and ensuring that economic growth does not come at the cost of environmental degradation.
4. Institutional Strengthening:
   • The summit focused on improving the institutional mechanisms of BIMSTEC. This included enhancing the Secretariat’s role in coordinating regional projects and initiatives. The member countries agreed to work towards creating a more robust framework for the organization’s governance to make decision-making more efficient.
   • Furthermore, the summit called for increased cooperation with external partners, particularly in addressing issues like pandemics and global economic instability.
5. Cooperation on Technology and Innovation:
   • Another significant outcome was the agreement to promote cooperation in the fields of technology, innovation, and digitalization. This could involve joint research initiatives, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, information technology, and biotech.

India’s Interests, Hopes, and Grievances in BIMSTEC

India, as a founding member and the largest economy in BIMSTEC, has several interests and hopes tied to the organization. However, it also faces certain grievances related to the functioning and dynamics of BIMSTEC.

India’s Interests and Hopes

1. Economic Integration and Connectivity:
   • India sees BIMSTEC as a crucial tool for regional economic integration, particularly through improved connectivity with Southeast Asia and the rest of the Bay of Bengal region. Enhanced transport links (such as rail and maritime routes) are important for India’s “Act East” policy, which focuses on strengthening ties with its eastern neighbors and East Asia.
   • India is keen on seeing progress on the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement (FTA), as this would open new avenues for trade and investment. As one of the region’s major players, India aims to benefit from enhanced economic cooperation, especially in sectors like agriculture, energy, and manufacturing.
2. Security Cooperation:
   • India has long advocated for stronger security cooperation within BIMSTEC, particularly in combating terrorism, transnational crime, and maritime security. The Bay of Bengal is strategically important for India’s security, and India’s cooperation with its neighbors in this area helps safeguard its maritime interests.
   • India also hopes that BIMSTEC can help reduce the influence of China in the region, particularly given China’s increasing presence in South Asia and Southeast Asia, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
3. Countering China’s Influence:
   • India sees BIMSTEC as an alternative to other regional organizations where China plays a dominant role. BIMSTEC’s more inclusive approach, incorporating both South and Southeast Asia, offers India an opportunity to assert its leadership in the region without the overwhelming influence of China, unlike in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or the China-led ASEAN+1 dialogue.
4. Regional Stability and Peace:
   • For India, regional peace and stability are crucial. As a major regional power, it has a vested interest in seeing BIMSTEC succeed in fostering cooperative relations among its members, particularly between countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, where political instability could affect India’s security and economic interests.

India’s Grievances

1. Slow Progress on BIMSTEC’s Goals:
   • One of India’s main grievances has been the slow pace of progress in key areas of cooperation. For instance, despite repeated discussions, the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement has not made substantial headway. The delays in implementing key projects, including infrastructure and connectivity initiatives, have been a source of frustration for India.
2. Internal Divisions:
   • BIMSTEC is a diverse organization, with countries having varying levels of political stability, economic priorities, and regional alignments. India sometimes finds it challenging to coordinate the interests of all member countries, especially when some members are closer to China or have divergent security concerns.
   • For instance, Myanmar’s military-led government and its reluctance to engage in certain regional forums have posed challenges. Similarly, India’s influence is often limited by the differing priorities and alignments of countries like Thailand, Sri Lanka, or Myanmar.
3. China’s Influence:
   • India remains wary of China’s increasing influence in BIMSTEC, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some BIMSTEC countries, such as Myanmar and Sri Lanka, have closer ties with China, and India is concerned that Beijing may use its influence to dilute India’s leadership role in the organization.
4. Geopolitical Rivalries:
   • India faces challenges in balancing its regional ambitions with its bilateral relations with other major powers in the region, particularly China and the United States. The complexity of geopolitics in Southeast Asia sometimes complicates India’s position within BIMSTEC, especially when it comes to dealing with security issues and cross-border tensions.

Conclusion

BIMSTEC is a vital organization for regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region, offering India significant opportunities for economic growth, security cooperation, and geopolitical influence. However, India’s ambitions within BIMSTEC are often tempered by the organization’s slow pace of progress, internal divisions among member states, and external challenges posed by China. The Kathmandu Summit of 2024 highlighted the potential for regional cooperation in areas such as connectivity, security, and climate change, but also underscored the difficulties in translating aspirations into concrete outcomes. India’s role in BIMSTEC remains pivotal, but its grievances regarding the organization’s functionality and external geopolitical factors will continue to shape its approach to the group.