Myanmar stands at the confluence of India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East Policy and the IndiaMyanmar partnership is at the heart of India’s vision to create a connected and cooperative neighbourhood. The Myanmar junta or Myanmar’s military has toppled the democratically elected government in a Coup D’etat. This has smashed decade-long hopes for a truly democratic Myanmar. As the future of Myanmar’s democracy is now uncertain and given its strategic importance, this Coup D’etat will have geopolitical implications for the region and India.

India’s Position

1. India expressed its concerns that the democratic gains made by Myanmar over the previous decades should not be undermined.
2. India reiterated its “support to the process of democratic transition” and assured that India’s developmental and humanitarian efforts in Myanmar aimed at the socio-economic development of the country will continue.
3. As a humanitarian gesture, the Mizoram government has issued a standard operating procedure (SOP) to Deputy Commissioners of border districts to facilitate the entry of refugees and migrants.
4. The government said those facing a threat to their lives should be treated as refugees, given medical care, relief and rehabilitation, and security.

Implications Of Coup On India’s Act East Policy

1. Myanmar is the lynchpin of India’s Act East Policy— it was from Naypyidaw that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had launched the policy in 2014.
2. The Tatmadaw’s coup d’etat on February 01, 2021, and the establishment of a new State Administrative Council (SAC), leading to a countrywide Civil Disobedience Movement, poses a serious policy challenge to New Delhi.
3. Political Realignments: The coup has attracted strong reactions and the threat of sanctions from the United States and the West. These decisive western sanctions may force Myanmar’s military to get closer to China, which may not be in the interest of India.
4. Rohingya Issue on Back Burner: Any effort to restore democracy in Myanmar will require supporting Aung San Suu Kyi. However, due to her silence on the Rohingya crisis, the plight of the helpless Rohingya may take a backseat or be conveniently forgotten.
5. Border & Regional Security: The political instability in the post-coup period is expected to divert the attention of the Myanmar Army from its periphery and its borders. This may create tensions at border areas in India (refugees, insurgents, illegal movements)
6. Delayed Connectivity Projects: Two of India’s critical connectivity projects nearing completion—the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway Project—could suffer delays as a consequence.
7. The political instability slows down these connectivity projects further delaying the subregional integration. This would also delay plans to extend the Trilateral Highway to Vietnam.

Way Forward

1. As a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this year, India can play an important role along with partner countries like Vietnam in building international opinion.
2. Reducing the Gap Among Different Communities: In the current scenario, the military will continue to exploit ethnic and religious fault lines. Engagement with domestic stakeholders, including ethnic minorities, especially from the north, should be pursued by the international community.
3. Threatening with the Imposition of Sanctions is not a Solution: The Myanmar military has always been able to economically withstand sanctions by striking deals with Asian countries in the past, therefore imposing sanctions is unlikely to bring any major political change.
4. For India, engagement with Myanmar is vital. Though India has expressed deep concern over recent developments in Myanmar, cutting off from the Myanmar military is not a viable option as India has significant economic and strategic interests in Myanmar and its neighbourhood.
5. India should continue to engage with the present regime in Myanmar working towards mutual development of people of both countries while it should support sharing experiences in constitutionalism and federalism to assist Myanmar in resolving the prevailing stalemate.