Climate Change, and Its Effects on Global Geopolitical Landscape

From the slower of hurricanes to the melting of the ice caps and the burning of forests, climate change is not just changing the Earth and its climate but also its geography. These shifts have profound consequences for global geographic boundaries and regional geopolitical stability. But as temperatures rise, sea levels rise and weather patterns become more extreme, the world’s nations are confronting new challenges that risk redrawing borders and altering relations between countries.

Increasing Sea Levels and Coastal Erosion

Sea level rise is one of the most immediate and visible impacts of climate change. Global sea level increased by approximately 15-25 cm since 1900 and this trend will continue, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Sea levels rising threaten low-lying coastal areas, increasing coastal erosion and land loss. One of the most vulnerable spots on the globe is small island nations, including Maldives, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands. These islands’ potential disappearance would displace entire populations and pose questions of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Melting Ice Caps and Sovereignty in the Arctic

Melting polar ice caps are creating new shipping routes and giving access to previously unreachable natural resources, especially in the Arctic. The trend is being seen along narrow routes formerly mostly blocked by ice: The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are increasingly viable alternatives to established shipping lanes. It has ushered in an era of new competition among Arctic nations, including Russia, Canada and the United States, for control of those routes and the resources they could unlock — oil, gas and minerals. As these resources become more available, it is expected the geopolitical tensions in the Arctic region are set to continue.

Conflicts over access to scarce water resources

Climate change is intensifying water scarcity across many regions, particularly in arid and semi-arid parts of the world. Less rainfall and more evaporation because of higher temperatures are draining water resources, triggering disputes over the use of water. The Middle East, North Africa, and the western half of South Asia are especially at risk. The Nile River basin, for example, which is co-owned by 11 countries, is one such potential flash point for conflict, as upstream countries like Ethiopia undertake large-scale hydroelectric projects that would reduce water flow downstream to nations like Egypt and Sudan.

Changes from AgrarianCroppers to OtherSpaceAgricultural Croppers

Increasing temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events are affecting agricultural productivity, with impacts on crop yields and food production. Some areas might become more suitable for agriculture, while others might become less viable.” For example, the United States and Canada’s breadbasket could change and parts of Africa and South Asia could see drastic declines in agricultural productivity. Such shifts can cause food shortages, higher food prices and social unrest, especially in areas that are already food insecure.

Border Security and Human Migration

Climate change is also already rendering some areas of the world uninhabitable and so millions could be forced to move, bringing with its own substantial demographic shift, let alone how that is handled on the border security front. The United Nations estimates that by 2050 there will be up to 1 billion climate refugees. These migrations can put the strain on the resources and social fabric of host countries, resulting in tensions and conflicts. As an example of the challenges ahead, Europe has received millions of refugees from climate change-impacted regions in response to recent climate-induced disasters and conflicts.

Natural Disasters & State Resilience

As a result of climate change, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense. These events can overwhelm the response capabilities of states, which can lead to political instability and even the collapse of the state. The Haiti Earthquake of 2010 and the Typhoon Haiyan of 2013 in the Philippines are good examples of how susceptible a state will be in the wake of natural disasters, which can add fuel to the fire of pre-existing social and economic difficulties.

Global Cooperation and Climate Diplomacy

Climate change is a global phenomenon and impacts need to be addressed globally. Climate diplomacy has emerged, as countries join hands to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. For example, the Paris Agreement, which was signed in 2015, is a landmark initiative in global cooperation however its implementation hinges on the actions and dedication of each and every country. A lack of adherence to this commitments may escalate geo-political tensions and instability.

Conclusion

Climate change is not simply an environmental issue. It is a geopolitical one. The physical space of the planet is undergoing its own transformation, and that has implications for international relations.) The very real threats of rising sea levels, melting ice caps, water scarcity, agricultural fathering, human migration and natural disasters are transforming the global order. The international community will need to work together more than ever to mitigate the effects of climate change and to build a world that is more environmentally sustainable and stable.