What are the new developments in the current situation of Bangladesh and what are it's implications for India?
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On 5th August 2024, Sheikh Hasina was forced to resign from the post of Prime Minister of Bangladesh and flee the country due to protests by students against the quota system which is said to favour loyalists of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. In the aftermath, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus became the interim Prime Minister. Violence in Bangladesh has not died down completely as some conservative members are now targeting the minority Hindu community.
India and Bangladesh shared a robust relationship under the government of Sheikh Hasina. Economically, India supported Bangladesh with trade concessions and low interest lines of credit. Bangladesh is a major buyer of Indian electricity earning significant revenue.
The coup in Bangladesh creates more uncertainty in India’s neighbourhood. This will force India to increase its defence expenditure. This is detrimental for as a developing country, India has to focus on other areas like education and health.
After elections there is a chance that Khalida Zia’s Bangladesh National Party may come to power which is anti-India. India is also concerned about the situation of Hindu minorities and has formed a committee to monitor the situation.
Major changes are taking place in Bangladesh and its impacts would be felt in India in the coming times.
Bangladesh is currently experiencing significant developments that impact its relationship with India. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a key ally to India since 2009, introduces uncertainties in bilateral relations . Her departure may stall progress on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) discussions initiated in October 2023, affecting market access and economic ties between the two nations.
*Key Developments:*
– Elections and Disconnect: The 2024 elections in Bangladesh were marked by the Opposition’s boycott, limited democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and high youth unemployment .
– Student Protests: The government’s handling of student protests exacerbated tensions, contributing to Prime Minister Hasina’s resignation .
– Bangladesh Army’s Role: The army appears to be facilitating the will of the people by removing the beleaguered Prime Minister and restoring democratic processes .
*Implications for India:*
– Stability and Fundamentalism: Bangladesh’s escalating protests, financial crisis, and rising fundamentalist forces pose challenges for regional stability .
– Refugee Crisis: Instability in Bangladesh could spill over into India, affecting border security and potentially leading to a refugee crisis .
– Economic Ties: Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with bilateral trade amounting to $13 billion in 2023-24 .
– Infrastructure and Connectivity: India’s lines of credit to Bangladesh, totaling $8 billion since 2016, may be impacted by the changing political landscape .
India needs to navigate this changing landscape carefully, strengthening bilateral ties, supporting stability, and addressing shared challenges .