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China’s economic influence and trade surplus have significantly impacted India in several ways:
*Economic Impacts*
1. Trade deficit: India’s trade deficit with China increased from $1.1 billion in 2001-02 to $53.6 billion in 2020-21.
2. Dependence on Chinese imports: India relies heavily on Chinese goods, particularly electronics, machinery and raw materials.
3. Investment competition: Chinese investments in India’s neighboring countries, such as Sri Lanka and Nepal, challenge Indian influence.
4. Economic coercion: China uses trade as a tool to pressure India on political issues.
*Strategic Impacts*
1. Military modernization: China’s economic growth fuels military expansion, threatening India’s regional security.
2. Infrastructure development: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) encircle India.
3. Regional influence: China’s economic clout enhances its influence in South Asia, challenging India’s traditional dominance.
4. Border disputes: China’s military buildup along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) heightens tensions.
*Diplomatic Impacts*
1. Reduced negotiating power: India’s trade deficit limits its bargaining power in diplomatic engagements.
2. Regional organizations: China dominates regional forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS.
3. Global governance: China’s economic influence shapes global institutions, potentially undermining Indian interests.
4. Bilateral relations: China’s assertiveness strains India-China relations.
*Security Impacts*
1. Military buildup: China’s military expansion in the Indian Ocean and border regions poses security concerns.
2. Cybersecurity threats: China’s cyber capabilities threaten India’s critical infrastructure.
3. Terrorist support: China’s support for Pakistan-based terrorist groups undermines Indian national security.
4. Nuclear dynamics: China’s nuclear modernization affects India’s nuclear deterrence.
*Mitigation Strategies for India*
1. Economic diversification: Enhance trade ties with other nations.
2. Infrastructure development: Strengthen domestic infrastructure.
3. Military modernization: Upgrade India’s military capabilities.
4. Diplomatic engagement: Foster alliances and regional partnerships.
5. Cybersecurity enhancement: Protect critical infrastructure.
6. Border management: Enhance border security.
“The world will be shocked at China’s rise”, the words of Napoleon Bonaparte are apt today. India and China got independence in late 1940s, yet China remained second to US in military, economic and technological terms.
Chinese economic and military policies:
The BRI, CPEC,CMEC are the strategic economic investments to consolidate Chinese hold in Eurasia with involvement of 150 countries
The maritime silk road of China strengthens its influence in Southeast Asia, Indian Ocean.Resolving China’s Malacca dilemma, essentially turning South China sea into “Chinese lake”
These are providing push for Chinese aggression in South China Sea where it build several artificial islands, laid claims on areas till the nine dash line, Scarborough, Spratley islands, and indulging maritime disputes with Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia etc
Chinese cheque book diplomacy is eroding the sovereignty of many Asian and African nations who find themselves in debt traps .
Impact on India :
India was flooded with Chinese investments in critical infrastructure which was later dealt with in an apt manner. The blocking of Huawei 5G trials is an example
The widening trade deficit of 85 billion dollars is a cause of concern.
Reliance on China for key raw materials like APIs,KSIs in pharmaceutical industry, lithium in renewable energy has to be dealt with.
Increasing Chinese economic and military prowess makes it challenging for India to face the imminent threats in Ladakh and the North East.
The “string of pearls” strategy oof china by surrounding India through investments and bases in ports like Hambantota, Gwadar, Djibouti is a major challenge.
India must make timely use of the China+1 strategy ofthe West , QUAD along with emphasis on self reliance through Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat,PLI etc to counter China in economic and military terms
China’s strategic use of economic relations and trade surpluses to bolster its military capabilities has indeed had significant implications for India:
In conclusion, China’s strategic use of its economic relations and trade surpluses to enhance its military capabilities has significantly impacted India’s security calculus. It has prompted India to reassess its own military modernization, enhance border infrastructure, strengthen maritime security, and forge alliances to maintain a stable and secure regional balance of power.