El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs due to a periodical variation in temperatures between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. It has two phases: El Niño, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures, and La Niña, characterized by cooler ocean temperatures. It significantly influences weather patterns globally, including the Indian monsoon system.

Relationship between ENSO Events and the Indian Monsoon

• Rainfall Patterns: During the ENSO phenomena, the Indian subcontinent experiences altered rainfall patterns. Eg: the severe drought in 2002 was due to a strong El Niño event. Conversely, the 1988 monsoon was one of the wettest on record, a direct effect of La Niña.
• Onset Timing: The onset of the monsoon can be significantly affected by ENSO events, a classic example being the delayed onset in 2014 due to El Niño influences, which disrupted the agricultural calendar extensively.
• Regional Variations: ENSO events foster significant regional disparities in weather conditions across India. For instance, during the 2006 El Niño, while central India experienced a dry spell, northeast India faced heavy floods due to irregular rainfall patterns.
• Monsoon Depressions: La Niña encourages more monsoon depressions, as seen in 2010, resulting in a better-than-average monsoon season with bountiful rains, which, while aiding agriculture, also brought about challenges like flooding in several regions, including Punjab and Haryana.
• Historical Events: For instance, El Niño events of 1877 and 1899 affected Indian monsoon reducing rainfall and caused severe droughts, showcasing a consistent pattern of distress during such periods. Understanding this historical trend is crucial for modern predictive and preparatory strategies.

Impact of the Relationship between ENSO events and the Indian Monsoon

• Food Security: During ENSO events, particularly El Niño, the rainfall patterns in India become erratic which directly affects food security. For example, the El Niño event in 2002 resulted in a substantial decline in food grain production, affecting the food security of millions.
• Water Scarcity: Water scarcity becomes a pertinent issue in El Niño years. The year 2016 was marked with acute water shortages in various parts of India, necessitating even train services to transport water to the affected areas.
• Biodiversity: Changing monsoon patterns have adverse effects on biodiversity. The Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot in India, witnessed severe disruptions in the ecosystems during the El Niño years, leading to loss of species and altered migration patterns.
• Energy Sector: Hydroelectric power generation, which is a significant contributor to India’s energy sector, faces challenges due to irregular water availability. Eg: during 2023 summers (partially an El Niño year), power demand has touched the record height of 233 GW.
• Rural Livelihoods: Rural populations, chiefly reliant on agriculture, face the brunt of ENSO events. The farmer distress witnessed in various states during 2002 and 2009 were largely due to the El Niño phenomena affecting the monsoons adversely.
• Inflation: Agricultural output fluctuations lead to inflation, affecting the daily life of common people. During the 2009 El Niño event, India witnessed a surge in the prices of essential commodities, burdening the common man with increased costs, due to its double digit inflation rate (10.88%).

Way Ahead

• Improved Forecasting: Learning from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology which utilizes state-of-the-art computational facilities to forecast weather patterns, India can further modernize the IMD with higher computational prowess for accurate predictions during ENSO events.
• Water Conservation: Israel’s success story in water management through desalination and recycling of wastewater can serve as a benchmark. India can develop policies promoting these technologies to sustain water resources during erratic monsoon periods induced by ENSO events. Ex- Sujalam campaign.
• Agricultural Adaptation: Taking cue from the SRI (System of Rice Intensification) method, which proved successful in Tamil Nadu, promoting such innovative agricultural practices nationally could enhance productivity despite adverse climatic conditions.
• International Cooperation: Collaborating with initiatives like the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) can help in assimilating data and research to better understand the ENSO events and devise strategies at a global level.
• Leveraging technology: Promoting the development and use of Genetically Modified (GM) crops that are resistant to fluctuating weather conditions. Additionally, developing mobile apps to advise farmers on the best practices during varying climatic conditions.

Overall, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a profound impact on the Indian monsoon, affecting various sectors in India, including agriculture, biodiversity, and health. Adopting these strategies, India can pave a forward-thinking path in managing the impacts of ENSO events on its monsoonal patterns, focusing on sustainability and resilience in various sectors.