The statement about India’s population stabilizing and not needing a ‘two-child policy’ reflects the evolving understanding of population dynamics and policy implications in the country. Let’s critically examine the population stabilization initiatives in India in light of recent findings from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and broader demographic trends:

1.Context of Population Growth:

India has experienced significant demographic changes over the decades. The total fertility rate (TFR), which indicates the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years, has been declining steadily. According to NFHS-5 (2019-21), India’s TFR has decreased to 2.0, which is close to the replacement level fertility (2.1), where each couple replaces themselves with approximately two children, stabilizing the population in the long term.

2.Effectiveness of Population Policies:

Family Planning Programs: India has implemented various family planning programs since the 1950s. Initially focused on sterilization, these programs evolved to include contraception services, maternal health initiatives, and awareness campaigns.
Incentives and Policies: Some states in India have implemented incentives or disincentives to encourage smaller families, such as benefits for small families or restrictions on government benefits beyond a certain number of children. However, the effectiveness and ethical implications of such policies have been debated.

3.Challenges and Criticisms:

Regional Disparities: Despite overall decline, fertility rates vary significantly across states and socio-economic groups. High fertility rates persist in some states and among marginalized communities due to factors like lack of education, limited access to healthcare, and cultural norms.
Gender Dynamics: Gender inequality, including limited autonomy in reproductive choices for women and societal preferences for male children, continues to influence fertility patterns.
Healthcare Infrastructure: Access to quality healthcare services, including family planning and maternal health, remains uneven across India’s diverse regions, affecting the uptake of contraception and reproductive health services.

4.Emerging Trends and Considerations:

Economic Development: Rapid economic growth and urbanization have historically correlated with declining fertility rates as families prioritize education and career opportunities over larger family sizes.
Education and Empowerment: Increasing education levels, especially among women, have been associated with lower fertility rates as individuals make informed choices about family planning and childbearing.
Changing Demographic Dividend: India’s demographic dividend, where a large working-age population can drive economic growth, depends on harnessing the potential of a youthful population while managing population growth sustainably.

5.Policy Recommendations:

Focus on Quality Healthcare: Strengthening healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural and underserved areas, to ensure universal access to reproductive health services.
Empowerment and Awareness: Promoting education, gender equality, and awareness about family planning choices to empower individuals, particularly women, in making informed decisions.
Ethical Considerations: Balancing population policies with human rights principles, ensuring policies are voluntary, respect individual choices, and avoid coercive measures that infringe on reproductive rights.
In conclusion, while India’s population growth is stabilizing and the TFR suggests progress in demographic transition, effective population stabilization initiatives must address regional disparities, socio-economic factors, and healthcare access. The debate around a ‘two-child policy’ reflects broader discussions on population dynamics, economic development, and social justice, highlighting the need for nuanced and evidence-based policies that promote sustainable development and individual rights.

Answer: Latin American countries (LAC) include countries of Central America and South America. The flourishing relationship between India and countries of Latin America has become a critical element of India’s foreign policy due to following significance:

• Trade: Trade between India and LAC was at an all-time high of US$50 billion in 2022. Overall, if Latin America were a country, it would be India’s fifth largest trade partner in 2022-23.
• Energy security: Latin America, being home to several oil-rich nations, such as Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, is crucial for enhancing energy security of India.
• Sourcing of critical minerals: Latin America accounts for 40% of global production of copper, and supplies 35% of the world’s lithium. India is working on acquiring mines of strategic minerals such as lithium and cobalt in countries like Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
• Investment opportunity: India’s total investments in the region are valued at US$16 billion. Also, India is exploring the possibility of investing in the renewable energy sector in the region.
• Indian diaspora and people to people contact: The region has substantial Indian diaspora with strong historical and cultural ties to India. Moreover, Indian philosophy, yoga and teachings of Gandhi have influenced Latinos in the region. These ties hold a crucial place in strengthening and broadening our relations with these countries.
• South-South cooperation: India held the first Voice of Global South Summit, which had 29 Latin American and Caribbean countries. These summits and grouping serve as crucial platforms for identifying common ground and voicing collective concerns.

Despite the good momentum in the relations there are several challenges in the relations such as:

• Lack of regional cooperation: India has yet to formulate a mechanism to deal with the Latin American region. India has good relations with countries like Brazil, Mexico, Chile but other countries lag behind.
• Perception in foreign policy: Latin America was always relegated to the far end of the three concentric circles that drive India’s foreign policy. It belonged to the third circle due to which the relation remained limited in scope.
• Long distance: Latin America is simply too far from India and the lack of robustness in India- Latin America relations has been attributed to this issue of distance.
• Limited trade engagement: Current preferential trade agreements (PTAs) that India has with Mercosur (trading bloc in South America region comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and Chile remain limited in scope.
  • Also, India’s annual trade of $30-50 billion with LAC is low compared to China’s $400 billion.

Further, emphasis on comprehensive trade agreements with other countries in the region and supportive role of government can catalyze deeper and more expansive India-Latin America relations.

Answer:
The altering war in Ukraine and the lackluster military performance of Russia throughout the year has increased its dependence on China. A bulk of Russian energy exports are going to China, and the Chinese Yuan has emerged as an alternative currency for the payments to Russia. Also, recently both countries signed two key agreements, Joint Statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership for the New Era and the Pre-2030 Development Plan on Priorities in China- Russia Economic Cooperation.
This increasing proximity between China and Russia, which is described by some experts as the ‘most consequential undeclared alliance in the world’, can have significant impact on India’s national interests as mentioned below:

• India-China border dispute: Both countries are locked in a border standoff in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. India’s military arsenal mainly consists of Russian weapons and China is also receiving advanced Russian weapons and technologies.
  • The deepening Russia-China alliance may hamper India’s interests, as Russia will be unwilling to put pressure on China or even take a supportive stand towards India in the border confrontation.
• India’s geopolitical trajectory: China-Russia alliance will influence the geopolitics of Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific and present difficult dilemmas for India as it is member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as well as the US-led Indo-Pacific initiatives like the Quad.
• India-Pakistan: If Russia and China become true strategic partners, the possibility that Russia will get closer to Pakistan under China’s influence and the possibility of transfer of Russian arms/military technology to Pakistan via China cannot be ruled out.
• India’s interest in Central Asia: India’s economic and strategic interests in Central Asia and Afghanistan require an understanding of Chinese and Russian positions and possible coordination with both.
• UNSC Seat: On the question of UN reforms and India’s candidature for a UNSC seat, if Russia and China oppose it together, there would be a deadlock and India’s chances of a permanent seat on the UNSC will be hampered.

The Russia-China alliance and their competitive relationship with the West are reshaping the world around India. India needs to draw up following strategies to protect its interests.

• Relations with Russia: India needs to broaden and strengthen its relations with Russia as it is an important balancer vis-à-vis China. This can be done by expanding cooperation at the political, strategic, and economic levels. There are several areas where the two countries can cooperate such as Afghanistan, Central Asia and West Asia.
• Use multiple groupings: India needs to follow a policy of multiple alignments and multiple partnerships, engaging Russia and China both bilaterally and multilaterally in groupings like BRICS. Also, it needs to engage with other countries from Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Global South in forums like ASEAN, SCO, G20, to balance Russia-China dominance.
• Diversification of defence supplies: India should diversify its military equipment sourcing from western countries like USA, France, etc. while also focusing on defence indigenization to increase self-reliance.

While some argue that India needs the USA to balance the rising Chinese power, yet by cooperating with China on specific issues and maintaining its military ties with Russia, it should be able to achieve its national interests.

Answer: India’s foreign policy priorities, reflected in its “Act East’ and ‘Neighbourhood First policies, recognize the significance of the North-East region as a vibrant link to the country’s eastern neighbours. Geo-strategic advantages of the North-Eastern region of India:

• It shares 5,812 km of international boundaries with the neighbouring countries of Myanmar, China, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan.
• It is landlocked; seven of the eight states are linked to the rest of India only through the Siliguri Corridor in North Bengal, which is flanked by Nepal in the north and Bangladesh in the south.
• It is India’s land bridge to South-East Asia as it offers a land route for trade and cultural exchanges with countries like Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia.
• It is rich in natural resources, including coal, oil, and natural gas. The region is also home to a number of important international trans-boundary rivers.
• It is marked by socio-cultural diversity, which has historical links with people in neighbouring countries. This offers a unique advantage in terms of cultural diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges.

However, various challenges need to be addressed before the potential of the region as a pivotal connecting space can be utilised, such as:

• Internal challenges:
  • Mainstream political apathy: Historically, the North-East region has been an isolated and peripheral unit and has long remained in the margins of India’s mainstream political imagination of growth, development, and welfare.
  • Violence and unrest: Development in the region has also been impeded by political violence in the region, ethnic conflicts, insurgency movements.
  • Difficult terrain: Border roads as well as railways networks are seldom designed to accommodate the needs of large-scale transnational commercial endeavours due to the difficult terrain in the region.
  • Disasters: As the region witnesses floods and landslides in the Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys of Assam, considerable strain is exerted on the economy of the North-Eastern states.
  • Government policies: Although India has had amicable relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar, developments such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, National Register of Citizens (NRC), etc. threaten the relationship.
• External challenges:
  • Illegal cross-border activities: There is rampant narcotics trading, weaponry trading and trafficking of rare animals and poaching in the region.
    • Moreover, the linguistic and cultural homogeneity of the people on either side of the border makes it difficult to track those involved in illegal trade.
• Issues with Myanmar: The connectivity projects with Myanmar such as the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit Project (2008) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway (2002) are still not fully operationalized because of the political turmoil in Myanmar and intense conflict in the Chin and Rakhine states.
• Issues in motor vehicles agreement: Bhutan has backed out of the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) citing environmental concerns over the likely increase in road traffic.
• The signing of India, Myanmar and Thailand (IMT) is also held up, as Thailand is concerned that the MVA could put local players at a disadvantage.
• Global trade convention not signed by all: India has ratified the TIR (International Road Transport) Convention, which facilitates global trade, but Bangladesh and Myanmar have not, thereby leading to issues in enhancing international trade of goods.

However, the cooperation from BIMSTEC and SASEC countries and Japan can help tackle the above challenges and take advantage of the strategic location of the North-Eastern region and boost economic growth in the region.