Answer:
The altering war in Ukraine and the lackluster military performance of Russia throughout the year has increased its dependence on China. A bulk of Russian energy exports are going to China, and the Chinese Yuan has emerged as an alternative currency for the payments to Russia. Also, recently both countries signed two key agreements, Joint Statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership for the New Era and the Pre-2030 Development Plan on Priorities in China- Russia Economic Cooperation.
This increasing proximity between China and Russia, which is described by some experts as the ‘most consequential undeclared alliance in the world’, can have significant impact on India’s national interests as mentioned below:

• India-China border dispute: Both countries are locked in a border standoff in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. India’s military arsenal mainly consists of Russian weapons and China is also receiving advanced Russian weapons and technologies.
  • The deepening Russia-China alliance may hamper India’s interests, as Russia will be unwilling to put pressure on China or even take a supportive stand towards India in the border confrontation.
• India’s geopolitical trajectory: China-Russia alliance will influence the geopolitics of Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific and present difficult dilemmas for India as it is member of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as well as the US-led Indo-Pacific initiatives like the Quad.
• India-Pakistan: If Russia and China become true strategic partners, the possibility that Russia will get closer to Pakistan under China’s influence and the possibility of transfer of Russian arms/military technology to Pakistan via China cannot be ruled out.
• India’s interest in Central Asia: India’s economic and strategic interests in Central Asia and Afghanistan require an understanding of Chinese and Russian positions and possible coordination with both.
• UNSC Seat: On the question of UN reforms and India’s candidature for a UNSC seat, if Russia and China oppose it together, there would be a deadlock and India’s chances of a permanent seat on the UNSC will be hampered.

The Russia-China alliance and their competitive relationship with the West are reshaping the world around India. India needs to draw up following strategies to protect its interests.

• Relations with Russia: India needs to broaden and strengthen its relations with Russia as it is an important balancer vis-à-vis China. This can be done by expanding cooperation at the political, strategic, and economic levels. There are several areas where the two countries can cooperate such as Afghanistan, Central Asia and West Asia.
• Use multiple groupings: India needs to follow a policy of multiple alignments and multiple partnerships, engaging Russia and China both bilaterally and multilaterally in groupings like BRICS. Also, it needs to engage with other countries from Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Global South in forums like ASEAN, SCO, G20, to balance Russia-China dominance.
• Diversification of defence supplies: India should diversify its military equipment sourcing from western countries like USA, France, etc. while also focusing on defence indigenization to increase self-reliance.

While some argue that India needs the USA to balance the rising Chinese power, yet by cooperating with China on specific issues and maintaining its military ties with Russia, it should be able to achieve its national interests.