Impact of Projected One-Metre Global Sea Level Rise by 2100 on India and the Indian Ocean Region

Impact on India:

1. Coastal Erosion: A one-meter rise in sea level is likely to exacerbate coastal erosion along India’s extensive coastline. This will affect major cities and industrial hubs, such as Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata. For instance, Mumbai, with its low-lying coastal areas, could experience significant loss of land and infrastructure.
2. Flooding: Increased sea levels will lead to more frequent and severe flooding in coastal regions. Cities like Chennai and Kolkata, which are already prone to flooding, could face heightened risks, impacting millions of residents and causing substantial economic losses. The 2023 Chennai floods exemplify how rising sea levels can amplify flood risks.
3. Displacement of Populations: Low-lying areas such as the Sundarbans in West Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands could see displacement of communities due to loss of habitable land. The Sundarbans, home to a unique mangrove ecosystem and vulnerable communities, is at particular risk.
4. Impact on Agriculture: Saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems will affect agricultural productivity in coastal regions. This could threaten food security for millions of farmers in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Impact on the Indian Ocean Region:

1. Island Nations: Countries like Maldives, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka will face existential threats due to rising sea levels. Maldives, with its average elevation of just 1.5 meters above sea level, is particularly vulnerable and could see significant land loss and displacement of its population.
2. Economic Impact: Nations dependent on tourism, such as the Maldives and Mauritius, may experience declines in tourism revenue due to damage to coastal infrastructure and loss of beach areas. The economic stability of these countries is at risk.
3. Ecosystem Disruption: Coral reefs, which are critical for marine biodiversity and coastal protection, are threatened by sea level rise and associated ocean acidification. The degradation of reefs in countries like Indonesia and Australia will have cascading effects on marine ecosystems and local fisheries.
4. Regional Security: Rising sea levels may lead to increased regional tensions over water resources and territorial claims. For example, the potential loss of land and resources could lead to conflicts over maritime boundaries and resource management.

Recent Developments:

Countries in the Indian Ocean region are increasingly focusing on climate adaptation strategies. For instance, India has launched the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) to support projects aimed at mitigating the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise. Similarly, the Maldives is working on resilience-building measures and coastal protection projects to safeguard its low-lying islands.

In summary, the predicted one-metre rise in global sea levels by 2100 poses significant risks to India and the Indian Ocean region, impacting coastal erosion, flooding, population displacement, and economic stability. Regional cooperation and proactive adaptation strategies will be crucial in managing these challenges.