According to a Home Ministry’s data released in 2019 reveals that insurgency in the Northeast region has been declining since 2014. Almost all major insurgent groups in the Northeast have abjured violence and are engaged in peace talks with the Government of India. However, the indeterminate nature of the peace talks, active cadres of anti-talk factions, poor implementation of ceasefire rules and persistent antiforeigner sentiments can potentially damage the fragile peace achieved in the region.

Recent Developments In Northeast

1. Compared to 2013, insurgency incidents declined significantly by 66%, civilian casualties by 79%, casualties among security forces by 23%, and kidnapping or abduction cases by 62% in the region in 2018.
2. As of 2020, the arc of violence in the entire Northeast has shrunk primarily to an area which is the tri-junction between Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and north Nagaland.
3. The decades-old Bodo insurgency came to an end with the signing of a Memorandum of Settlement (MoS) by the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) in January 2020 and the complete disbandment of its armed cadres two months later in March.

Why Development Cannot Happen Without Peace In This Region

1. Militancy has stalled the prospect of linking the economy of the northeast with the neighbouring Southeast Asian countries.
2. Tourism, which could have flourished in the scenic northeast, has suffered a lot due to instability in the region.
3. Extortion by the militant groups on the national highways that connect the different states with mainland India has shot up the prices of essential commodities.
4. In the oil-rich Assam, militants have periodically targeted oil and gas pipelines for sabotage, alleging that India is exploiting the natural resources of the state.
5. National projects such as the extension of the rail lines have either been stalled or have moved with a tardy pace after militants attacked the construction sites and abducted workers.
6. The education sector too has been affected by militancy. A number of schools in states like Tripura’s interior areas have been shut as teachers avoid the areas due to fear of militant strikes.

Why Is Transition Difficult?

Despite the improvement in the security situation in the Northeast, there remain a number of issues that have the potential to increase the level of violence in the region and make the transition to an agent of democracy difficult.

1. Due to protracted peace talks, insurgents staying in designated camps feel increasingly demoralised and frustrated, as the absence of final settlement prevents a clear roadmap for their proper rehabilitation.
2. Poor Implementation of Ceasefire Agreements: The failure of the Union government to properly implement the ceasefire agreements has resulted in numerous turf wars and armed rivalries between the insurgent groups. For eg: the NSCN (IM) has been running a kidnapping and extortion racket despite being under a ceasefire agreement with the Government.
3. Active Insurgent Groups in Myanmar: It is reported that currently around 2000-3000 insurgent cadres belonging to the ULFA-I and Meitei separatist outfits are still hiding at different locations in Myanmar. Until such time these anti-talk breakaway factions are brought to the negotiating table, insurgency in the region will continue and peace will remain a distant dream.
4. Anti-CAA Agitation: The implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019 (CAA) in Assam’s non-scheduled areas has generated resentment against the Union government. It has provided an issue for insurgent groups such as the ULFA-I to mobilise and recruit youth.
5. There are over a hundred ethnic groups in the Northeast who want to retain their uniqueness in their political and social orientations as well. It is due to this there are so many divisive forces at play in this reason which gave rise to the insurgency.
6. Trans-national linkage: India’s Northeast is one of South Asia’s hottest trouble spots, not only because the region has as many as 30 armed insurgent organizations but also due to transborder linkages that these groups have, and strategic alliances among them, have acted as force multipliers and have made the conflict dynamics all the more intricate.

Way Forward

1. Enhancing Connectivity: Comprehensive geographical connectivity is key to the development of NorthEast states. For this transit arrangement to connect to the Indian mainland through Bangladesh and India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral highway should be completed.
2. Continuing vigilance: India should not lower its guard thinking insurgency has ended it should continue to be vigilant. There have been instances where violent acts have been committed after a very long gap by newly formed groups. The centre and the state government should identify all the groups small and big and deal with them so that the insurgency doesn’t spring up again.
3. Addressing people’s aspirations: The conflict in the NorthEast is the physical manifestation of the aspiration of people. Thus there is a need to address the aspirations of the people by establishing continuous dialogues with them.
4. Forward looking policy: A structured counterinsurgency policy is needed in which all the factors should be considered by the government by consulting all the stakeholders to comprehensively deal with such insurgency in the future.
5. Greater integration: A sense of belongingness should be encouraged among the local population and a sense of pride should be inculcated in them for their contributions made to India such as the Kohima war during the Indian freedom struggle.