Model Answer

Introduction

The Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar allowed people from both countries to travel up to 16 km into each other’s territory without a visa. This system fostered border trade, cultural exchanges, and strengthened ties. However, the recent decision by India to dismantle the FMR and fence the border raises several consequences for both countries.

Positive Implications of Scrapping FMR

1. Improved Surveillance and Border Control:

The fencing of the 1643 km border, coupled with enhanced surveillance, will curb illegal activities such as drug trafficking, timber trade, and smuggling of gold. For example, following Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, Manipur saw an increase in drug seizures from the border region.

2. Restriction on Illegal Migration:

The decision helps prevent the influx of illegal migrants from Myanmar, especially after the 2021 coup. Tensions in Manipur related to illegal migration of Kuki-Chin communities from Myanmar highlight this concern.

3. Reduced Cross-Border Insurgency:

Fencing the border can help prevent insurgent groups like the United Liberation Front of Asom from using Myanmar as a base for attacks in Assam.

Negative Implications of Scrapping FMR

1. Livelihood Impact:

Local border residents, such as those in Mizoram’s Zowkhatar village, depend on the ability to cross the border for work and trade. Ending the FMR will disrupt these livelihoods.

2. Strained Ethnic and Cultural Ties:

The FMR has facilitated long-standing cultural and familial connections between people on both sides of the border, particularly among ethnic groups like the Mizos and Nagas. Its termination could strain these ties.

3. Security Concerns:

The end of the FMR could inflame anti-government sentiments, potentially reviving insurgency movements, such as the Naga insurgency, which thrives on ethnic divisions.

4. Impact on India’s Act East Policy:

The FMR was integral to India’s Act East Policy, aimed at improving ties with Southeast Asia. Its removal might hinder India’s diplomatic and economic outreach to the region.

Conclusion

While the dismantling of the FMR provides certain security benefits, it comes with significant challenges, including social disruption, economic costs, and strategic setbacks. Balancing security needs with regional stability will be crucial moving forward.

Model Answer

Transboundary river disputes have long influenced India’s relations with its neighboring countries. These disputes arise from shared water resources, conflicting developmental priorities, and concerns over infrastructure projects. Below are the key impacts, illustrated with examples:

1. India-China Relations

China’s construction of storage structures upstream of the Brahmaputra River has raised alarms in India over potential impacts on downstream water flows.

• 2017 Doklam Standoff: China withheld hydrological data on the Brahmaputra, despite an MoU mandating data sharing during the flood season. This highlighted China’s leverage over water resources in bilateral ties.

2. India-Pakistan Relations

Disputes over the Indus Water Treaty (1960), governing six rivers, have been a persistent issue.

• Baglihar Project (Chenab): Pakistan opposed India’s construction of this hydropower project, leading to international arbitration.
• 2023 Notice: India sought to renegotiate the treaty, citing Pakistan’s objections to projects like Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects.

3. India-Bangladesh Relations

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, but agreements exist for only one—the Ganga.

• Teesta River Dispute: Prolonged negotiations have failed to yield a treaty, despite high-level dialogues, straining bilateral ties.

4. India-Nepal Relations

Historic treaties like the Kosi (1954) and Mahakali (1996) agreements have been sources of resentment in Nepal.

• Nepal claims these treaties disproportionately benefit India and hinder Nepal’s hydropower ambitions.

Geopolitical Implications

These disputes have allowed China to exploit tensions and strengthen its ties with India’s neighbors, intensifying regional challenges.

Conclusion

Resolving transboundary water disputes is essential for fostering regional stability. This requires sustained diplomacy, equitable agreements, and sustainable management of shared resources.

Model Answer

1. Economic Gains

Enhancing trade and investment integration in South Asia can lead to significant economic benefits. By allowing the free movement of goods and services, the region can achieve efficient capital and labor usage. For example, the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) saw its tariff rates drop from 7% to zero after its formation in 1992, boosting regional trade and economic growth.

2. IncreasedInvestment

Greater regional integration can enhance the investment climate by providing access to larger markets. This attracts more foreign direct investment (FDI), as investors see a unified regional market as a more accessible and profitable opportunity.

3. Voice in Global Forums

A unified approach to trade, connectivity, and investment can provide South Asian countries with stronger bargaining power in multilateral forums like the World Trade Organization (WTO). This would allow the region to negotiate more favorable terms and shape global trade policies.

4. Energy Security

Energy integration is another important driver. South Asian countries are heavily dependent on energy imports, and closer economic ties could enhance energy security by fostering shared infrastructure and regional energy markets.

Challenges in Enhancing Integration

1. High Cost of Intra-Regional Trade

Intra-regional trade in South Asia is costly, accounting for 114% of the value of the goods exported. This high cost discourages the formation of regional value chains, even though the countries are geographically close.

2. Poor Trade Facilitation

Non-physical barriers such as excessive delays, high costs, and complex procedures at borders hinder trade. Inconsistent documentation and customs procedures further complicate integration.

3. Political Conflicts

Political tensions, such as those between India and Pakistan, remain a major barrier. For instance, bilateral trade between these countries dropped significantly from $830.58 million in 2019-20 to $329.26 million in 2020-21 due to political unrest.

4. Non-Tariff Barriers

Non-tariff measures like quotas, standards, and labeling requirements also impede regional integration. These barriers are often poorly defined, adding to the complexity of trade within the region.

In conclusion, while South Asia has significant potential for trade and investment integration, overcoming political, economic, and logistical challenges is crucial for realizing this potential.