Bangladesh is currently experiencing significant developments that impact its relationship with India. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a key ally to India since 2009, introduces uncertainties in bilateral relations . Her departure may stall progress on the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) discussions initiated in October 2023, affecting market access and economic ties between the two nations.

*Key Developments:*

– Elections and Disconnect: The 2024 elections in Bangladesh were marked by the Opposition’s boycott, limited democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and high youth unemployment .
– Student Protests: The government’s handling of student protests exacerbated tensions, contributing to Prime Minister Hasina’s resignation .
– Bangladesh Army’s Role: The army appears to be facilitating the will of the people by removing the beleaguered Prime Minister and restoring democratic processes .

*Implications for India:*

– Stability and Fundamentalism: Bangladesh’s escalating protests, financial crisis, and rising fundamentalist forces pose challenges for regional stability .
– Refugee Crisis: Instability in Bangladesh could spill over into India, affecting border security and potentially leading to a refugee crisis .
– Economic Ties: Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with bilateral trade amounting to $13 billion in 2023-24 .
– Infrastructure and Connectivity: India’s lines of credit to Bangladesh, totaling $8 billion since 2016, may be impacted by the changing political landscape .

India needs to navigate this changing landscape carefully, strengthening bilateral ties, supporting stability, and addressing shared challenges .