The changes in monsoon patterns across the Indian subcontinent have an influence from air movement, ocean activities, and ground conditions. Important air factors include the ITCZ’s move north, the monsoon trough, and wind streams affected by the Tibetan Plateau. Ocean activities like sea surface heat, ENSO, and the IOD have a big impact. ENSO stages, for example, can reduce (El Niño) or boost (La Niña) monsoon rain. Ground conditions such as snow on the Himalayas wet soil, and plant life also affect how strong the monsoon is and when it starts.
These factors interact in a fluid way. The interplay between the atmosphere and oceans, like how ENSO has an impact on SSTs, and between the atmosphere and land such as how cutting down forests affects local humidity, play a key role. These interactions lead to changes from season to season and year to year, with ENSO and IOD phases adding to the ups and downs in rainfall each year. To get better at predicting monsoons, we need to grasp these complex interactions. This knowledge helps to manage water resources, support farming, and prepare for disasters.