Population & Associated Issues

India is now entering the final stages of demographic transition, with the country nearing replacement -level fertility. Of late, the demographic scenario in India has been viewed more optimistically as compared with the widespread anguish that was evident a few decades earlier; the changing India’s demographic structure includes the following change in dimensions.

Changing Demographics Structure

1. The demographic transition pattern that denotes the change that countries undergo from a regime of high fertility and high mortality to one of low fertility and low mortality help to analyse the demographic structure of any country vividly. As this phenomenon tends to occur in an asynchronous fashion, with death rates declining first and birth rates following later, countries often experience a transitional period of rapid population growth as indicated in birth and death rate.
2. Birth rate as per TFR variations: India has recorded a growth rate of 1.6% per year during the 2001–2011 census periods, adding around 181 million people to the total during the decade. Although the UNPD projection assumes India will achieve replacement-level fertility [total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1] around 2040.
3. Death as per infant, maternal deaths: There has been an acceleration in the rate of decline in mortality since independence in 1947. The crude death rate is as low as around 8 per 1000 population by 2010–2015 and is expected to go up in the future because of age structure changes. The infant mortality rate (IMR) remains high in India at around 50 per 1000 live births as of 2009. From an estimated level of around 200 to 225 infant deaths per 1000 live births at the time of India‘s independence in 1947, IMR has declined to about 80 during 1990– 1992, which is a decline of around 1.4% per year.
4. Migration: As a result of outmigration, the population density of the place of origin is reduced, and the birth rate decreases. Similarly, emigration in large numbers can alter demographic profiles of communities, as most of the young men move out, leaving only the women and the elderly to work on the land. The demographic heterogeneity is also leading to huge inter-state migration. There has been a relatively large inflow of migrants from the northern belt having a high fertility rate to the southern region with below replacement level of fertility, particularly in unskilled occupation.

Impact Of Demographic Change On Social Advancement And Development

1. Male marriage squeeze: A shortage of women implies a male marriage squeeze. When fertility declines rapidly and is accompanied by female-biased sex selection, a far lesser number of women are born and enter the “marriage market”. The “shortage of brides” has become one of the most significant negative impacts of the sex ratio imbalance. Due to this shortage, there is a switch from endogamy to exogamy as endogamous marriages restrict and limit the choice of the people to choose their life partner.
2. Inclusive development for old age: The share of the population over the age of 60 is projected to increase from 8 percent to nearly 20 percent in 2050. Fulfilling needs for services and social protection for senior citizens, protection of their rights, and enabling them to contribute to the development process has now become priorities for India.
3. Fertility: There is migration from rural to urban and it is observed that migrants had a 14 percent higher and a 16 percent lower fertility when compared, respectively, to the urban and rural standards. There is a necessity of creating smart villages wherein fertility is high.
4. North-south divide: Indian population is growing much faster in the north compared to the south causing adverse scenarios. The southern region has fertility rates lower than the replacement rate, meaning that fewer babies are being born than the number of people dying – a trend that would eventually result in a declining population. The north with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – two states that together make up a quarter of India‘s population recording very high fertility rates of 2.74 and 3.41, respectively.
5. The economic growth: Brought about by increased economic activities due to a higher working-age population and lower dependent population that will be manifested as :

1. The rise in women’s workforce that naturally accompanies a decline in fertility, and which can be a new source of growth.
2. The feminisation of labour owing to the rural out-migration trend and changed demographic profile.
3. A massive shift towards a middle-class society, that is, the rise of the aspirational class.
4. Rapid industrialisation and urbanisation because of a higher number of employment seeking population that would force higher economic.

India’s demographic pattern generates broad optimism but also strange paradoxes. It creates an unbalanced economic growth pattern and recent experiences show the potential for larger migration of unskilled labourers from north to demographically advanced southern states. Therefore, further enhancement of demographic advantage depends upon the faster demographic changes in these states. At the same time, the demographic changes provide other major challenges to the nation. It is important that the government and the people at large pledge themselves to take care of these emanating challenges. India is on the right side of a demographic structure that provides a golden opportunity for its rapid socio-economic development if policymakers align the developmental policies with this demographic shift.